A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
